Equity markets started 2024 like they ended 2023, with global equities (as measured by MSCI ACWI) returning 8.7% in the first quarter. This has been led once again by the US, followed closely by Japanese equities which have continued their recovery to end the quarter as the second best performer. All other equity regions registered […]
Q1 Investment Update – Reap the Rewards Read More »
Christmas came early for investors as a Santa rally in equity markets through November and December in particular, left investors with much to cheer. The MSCI ACWI index (which represents 98% of the investable stock market universe globally) finished the year 15% higher than where it began. There was also, finally, good news for bond
Q4 Investment Update – Santa Rally Read More »
Many people breathed a sigh of relief as, finally, the Bank of England paused interest rate rises for the first time since December 2021, during which time they have raised the base rate from 0.1% to 5.25%. This followed a similar move in the US from the Federal Reserve who also did not raise rates,
Q3 Investment Update – Pause for Breath Read More »
Sticky inflation, rising interest rates, bank failures, an attempted coup in Russia, the US narrowly avoiding default by a matter of days and an ongoing cost of living crisis. You’d be forgiven for thinking these events have spooked financial markets but the reality has been very different, with markets performing better than even most optimists
Q2 Investment Update – Magnificent Seven Read More »
2023 got off to a better start than 2022 and was looking likely to correct some of the previous year’s losses. We have long said that markets tend to overshoot on the downside as well as the upside. It is the following sharp correction to the overshoot which catches market timers out. Then came a
Q1 Investment Update – Banks again Read More »
2022 was not the worse year for shares but it was the worst year for bonds and it was the worst year for shares and bonds combined since records began in 1871. This is shown vividly in the 8th chart in this chart-set from the data team at the FT covering the events of 2022.
Q4 Investment Update – The worst of times Read More »
This update strives to be apolitical. We do though, have a view on markets and it turns out that markets have a view on UK politics. Quarter 3 of 2022 looked very much like a trapezium, with July showing a sharp rise, August a flat return and then a fall in September. For UK residents
Q3 Investment Update – Dark Carnival Read More »
John F. Kennedy once said “a rising tide raises all boats”, he didn’t have you in mind when he said it, but it is true that the last decade has seen investors wealth rise rather nicely and all asset classes rising at once. This has been partly due to the kind of central government intervention
Q2 Investment Update – Rising Tide Read More »
We have been saying for some time now that the musical ‘monetary easing’ chairs will come to an end sometime. When the music stops it is likely that investors will find that at least a couple of chairs are missing. Quarter three 2017 saw the start of tightening monetary conditions that we have argued are
Quarter 3 Investment Update Read More »
As we said last quarter, market returns have been extraordinary for over a decade now. Even a portfolio only 60% allocated to shares and 40% to bonds would have produced an 11.1% return each year over the last decade (9.1% after inflation). In fact this is the sort of asset allocation that the majority of
Q1 Investment Update – Stagflation? Read More »
